Blue Homeland, Red Lines: A Maritime Crisis is brewing in the Eastern Mediterranean
How Regional Rivalries Could Spark a Maritime Crisis in the Mediterranean Sea.
Tensions Resurface in the Eastern Mediterranean
On Sunday, Greece deployed three warships in the Eastern Mediterranean, between Turkey and Libya.
According to Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, the deployment was a response to a recent influx of illegal Libyan migrants. At a European Union summit, Mitsotakis stated that the warships would specifically focus on intercepting and turning back smuggling vessels to Libya.
However, analysts suggest the deployment reflects broader strategic concerns.
Last Wednesday, Libya’s National Oil Corporation signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Turkish Petroleum Corporation to conduct surveys in four offshore areas along the Libyan coast.
The agreement builds on a controversial 2019 MoU between Libya and Turkey, which delineated maritime boundaries between Tripoli and Ankara. As part of that deal, exclusive economic zones (EEZs) were established for both countries within the Eastern Mediterranean.
The 2019 agreement sparked significant backlash, particularly from Greece, which claims that it disregards zones Athens considers part of its maritime domain. Since then, Greece has consistently lobbied the EU to oppose Turkish moves in the Mediterranean that it perceives as hostile.
Critical Waters, Critical Threats
The Mediterranean Sea remains one of the world’s most strategically and economically vital bodies of water. Its importance rests on five main pillars:
Geopolitical Crossroads: Bordering more than 20 countries, the Mediterranean links Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East. It includes crucial chokepoints such as the Suez Canal and Gibraltar Strait.
Trade and Shipping: Roughly 20–25% of global sea trade transits through the Mediterranean, including energy exports, industrial goods, and agricultural commodities.
Energy Resources: The Eastern Mediterranean hosts vast offshore gas reserves. Disputes over EEZs have become flashpoints for regional rivalries, most notably between Turkey, Greece, and Egypt. Libya’s coastal position makes it a critical player in this energy contest, hence why its civil war attracted foreign involvement from outside actors, including Ankara and Athens.
Military Projection: NATO, Russia, Turkey, and France maintain naval presences in the Mediterranean. Russia is even considering transferring assets from Syria to Libya to secure long-term access.
Migration Corridors: The Mediterranean remains a key route for irregular migration from Africa and the Middle East to Europe. The Arab Spring and Libya’s prolonged instability turned these waters into humanitarian flashpoints.
The ongoing Red Sea crisis has further elevated the Mediterranean’s strategic importance in three key ways:
Rerouted Trade: With Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, ships using the Suez Canal must now reroute through the Mediterranean and around Africa, escalating congestion and geopolitical sensitivity.
Energy Security: As Red Sea disruptions threaten Gulf oil exports, European states are increasingly investing in Eastern Mediterranean gas infrastructure, particularly in Greece, Italy, and Egypt.
Border Pressures: Economic decline in North Africa and the Middle East—exacerbated by Red Sea instability—risks triggering new migration waves toward Europe via the Mediterranean. Greece’s naval deployments reflect these mounting concerns.
For all these reasons, the Mediterranean has long been vied for control by both regional and international actors, especially Turkey. In 2006, Ankara announced the “Mavi Vatan” (Blue Homeland) Doctrine, a maritime strategy designed to turn Turkey into a regional energy power by expanding its EEZ claims and naval footprint in surrounding waters, the Mediterranean included.
Under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey has intensified its foreign policy activities in North Africa, especially in Libya, where it backs the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity.
Given these developments, the renewed Libya–Turkey–Greece maritime dispute has implications that extend well beyond national boundaries. It threatens not just regional diplomacy, but also global trade, energy security, and shipping safety.
Egypt: The Quiet Diplomatic Power
Diplomacy will be key to de-escalating tensions among Tripoli, Ankara, and Athens—and Egypt is uniquely positioned to mediate.
The Mediterranean has long held strategic value for Cairo due to its control over the Suez Canal, which generates over $10 billion annually in revenue. It was for this reason that Egyptian President Anwar Sadat normalized relations with Israel in 1978 to regain control over the canal, despite popular backlash.
Today, the Red Sea crisis has led to a 40% drop in Suez Canal traffic, adding pressure to an already fragile Egyptian economy. Cairo is therefore looking north to the Mediterranean to sustain economic stability and pursue offshore energy development.
Although Egypt has traditionally sided with Greece in opposing Turkey’s maritime claims, recent diplomatic thawing with Ankara has made Cairo an ideal interlocutor.
A recent report revealed that Egypt has urged the United States to pressure the Libyan parliament from approving the MoU. However, Libyans are unlikely to bow to external pressure, especially from Washington.
Instead, Egypt should leverage its ties all three states to mediate and help negotiate an expanded maritime framework, possibly transforming the 2019 Libya-Turkey MoU into a broader quadrilateral agreement that includes itself and Greece.
Navigating New Threats
In the meantime, maritime shipping firms must take practical measures to mitigate growing risk in the Eastern Mediterranean:
Avoid Contested Waters: Until maritime boundaries are formally renegotiated, commercial vessels should avoid disputed zones between Libya, Greece, and Turkey, particularly south of Crete and off the Libyan coast.
Refrain from Dual-Use Cargo: Tensions remain high between armed factions in Libya, potentially kickstarting a new civil war. Arms, surveillance equipment, and other dual-use items transiting the Libyan coast could be perceived as support for rival factions or proxy involvement in the Turkey-Greece dispute. Organizations should refrain from shipping such goods through the Mediterranean.
Coordinate with Port Authorities: Companies should liaise with port officials in Piraeus (Greece), Misrata/Tripoli (Libya), and Izmir (Turkey) for pre-clearance, real-time advisories, and conflict avoidance.
Conclusion: Mediterranean Calamity on the Horizon?
With continued Red Sea instability and Iran threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz, the Mediterranean’s role as a critical corridor will only grow.
If the dispute between Libya, Turkey, and Greece escalates—particularly in contested EEZs or naval confrontations—the region risks spiraling into a maritime crisis with global implications.
Diplomats, policymakers, and maritime organizations must engage now—or risk a future where one of the world's most important waterways becomes a battleground.
What do you think lies ahead for the Mediterranean? Will we witness a yet another maritime crisis? Let me know down below!