The Struggle for Kordofan: A New Turning Point in Sudan?
A guide to understanding this strategically important province.
This summer has seen the Kordofan province of Sudan increasingly become a highly contested battleground between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in the country’s ongoing war.
The war began in April 2023 due to a power struggle between the two belligerents. In the two years since, the conflict has resulted in over 150,000 deaths, a collapse of the country’s medical system, and spilled over into neighboring states, such as Libya and the Central African Republic. The war is now often cited as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.
Immediately after, the RSF seized control of the Kordofan province, although the SAF has since waged siege in the territory to regain control.
Recent developments have taken place pointing to the SAF’s success. The Darfur Joint Protection Force —a local militia allied with the army—declared its victory in recapturing the strategic city of Um Sumaima from the RSF.
Located west of El Obeid, capital of the North Kordofan province, the RSF seized control of Um Sumaima towards the end of May. The RSF described the victory as a “turning point” in the war, given that it effectively cut off supply routes for the SAF in Kordofan.
Ahmed Hussein Mustafa, a spokesperson for the Joint Protection Force, stated that a "massive force" had arrived in Um Sumaima weeks prior with the "aim of overthrowing El Obeid," ejecting the RSF in the process.
"We congratulate our people on the return of the Umm Sumayyah area in North Kordofan to the nation’s embrace," Darfur Governor Minni Minnawi posted on Facebook.
In response, the RSF launched artillery shelling targeting neighborhoods in El Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan, killing four people.
As the province becomes heavily contested, this guide will explain the importance of Kordofan in the struggle between the SAF and RSF.
What is Kordofan?
Kordofan is one of the eighteen provinces of Sudan. The province consists of three states: North, South, and West.
The region is located in the central south of the country, covering roughly 150,000 square miles (390,000 square km) and home to 7.6 million people.
The territory is home to not only the Nuba Mountains range but also includes prominent metropolitan cities such as the aforementioned El Obeid and Um Sumaima.
Kordofan lies along the Sudan-South Sudan border.
Why is Kordofan considered strategic?
Given its large terrain, both the army and the paramilitary group see control over Kordofan as integral to maintaining a wide net of control in Sudan.
Furthermore, Kordofan bridges the eastern and western portions of the nation. For this reason, trade routes connecting such disparate regions—including those used by belligerents for weapons transfers—go through Kordofan.
Another urgent aspect to Kordofan is oil. The oil pipelines connecting Sudan and South Sudan run through the region; whichever party controls Kordofan effectively dictates the country’s oil supply, as well.
North Kordofan is particularly critical to the SAF, given that the state bridges the capital of Khartoum—which the military retook earlier this year—and the western territory of Darfur, which remains under RSF control. North Kordofan could be used by the military to arm the ongoing SAF siege in Darfur.
Similarly, Um Sumaima is critical to the RSF, as control over the city will complete its encirclement of SAF forces in North Kordofan. However, with the RSF now ejected, the SAF has multiple access points to Darfur and White Nile State.
What will victory in Kordofan mean for both belligerents?
A victory in Kordofan will mean complete domination of the passageways connecting eastern and western Sudan.
For the SAF, this will mean fortifying its siege of Darfur, choking the RSF of critical supplies that could eventually bring the paramilitary group to its knees. For the RSF, retaking Kordofan will reverse its recent losses, enabling it to launch new offensives targeting prominent cities in the country’s western half, including Khartoum.
As both the SAF and RSF aspire to govern Sudan post the war, control over Kordofan will also give it leverage over South Sudan, as the region’s oil pipelines are an important income stream for Juba’s struggling economy.
As the struggle over Kordofan intensifies, so too does the risk of a wider regional fallout. Given its strategic location and bordering several nations, collapse in Sudan could be devastating for not only Africa, but for maritime trade and gold market volatility. Insights for what lies ahead are needed now more than ever.
For tailored briefings, strategy consultations, and customized risk assessments on regional security and market dynamics, subscribe and contact Oasis Policy Advisory. We offer strategic intelligence at the nexus of geopolitical risk, national security, and market dynamics across the Middle East & North Africa.