Week in Review: Israel and Iran on the brink of war, Iraq caught in the middle, Sudan war spilling over (June 9-14)
A weekly recap covering geopolitical flashpoints, defense trends, and strategic shifts across the Middle East and North Africa.
Briefings & Analyses
Monday: Avoiding the “Sudan Scenario" in Iraq
A recent legislation passed in Iraq aims to fold the Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Forces into the national security sector.
The move dangerously parallels the events that preceded the Sudan war in 2023.
Iraq should turn to neutral third parties—most notably Oman—to help balance the concerns of all involved actors.
Tuesday: Why the Sudan war is spreading
Clashes occurred between Sudanese and Libyan forces alongside the countries’ shared border.
The Sudanese Armed Forces previously accused Libyan General Khalifa Haftar of interfering in Sudan’s war, which Haftar denies.
The event marks a turn in events for the war, suggesting the conflict will no longer be contained in Sudan.
Wednesday: The Third Libyan Civil War? Why the Country’s Divisions Are Deepening
Last May saw the heaviest fighting in Libya since the end of the civil war in 2020.
The clashes are a third in a string of crises that threaten Libya’s already fragile order.
Without an intervention from the international community, Libya could quite quickly fall back into disarray.
Thursday: Is a direct war between Israel and the Houthis on the horizon?
Israel launched a naval strike on the vital Hodeida Port.
The port brings Israel closer to a deeper military confrontation with the Yemeni Houthis.
Iran will most certainly enhance its support for its allies in Yemen.
Friday: Don’t let the Sudan-Libya crisis become another Iraq and Syria
The clashes along the Sudan-Libyan border threaten another Iraq-Syria scenario in northeast Africa
Both states risk becoming terror hotspots, particularly for militias active in West Africa.
This would put maritime security along the Red Sea further at risk.
Flashpoints
Israel just struck Iran. Here’s why Iraq could be next.
Israel launched an unprecedented attack on Iran, targeting the country’s nuclear facilities.
The conflict risks dragging in other states as Israel and Iran prepare for direct confrontation with each other.
Iraq will be most at risk, due to its proximity to Israel and hosting various Iranian proxies.
Why the Gulf States are calling for restraint in the Israel-Iran tensions
In the aftermath of Israel’s strikes, Arab states widely condemned the attacks.
This has included those in the Gulf, despite some of them having normalized ties with Israel in recent years.
The Gulf’s opposition to an Israel-Iran war is primarily out of concern of being dragged into the conflict as well as protecting their economic interests.