Weekly Retrospective: U.S. strikes Iran, Iran strikes Qatar, a shaky ceasefire is put in place (June 22-28, 2025)
A weekly recap from Oasis Policy Advisory, covering geopolitical flashpoints, defense trends, and strategic shifts across the Middle East and North Africa.
Briefings & Analyses
Monday, June 23: Putin, Khamenei, and the Myth of Unity
Common Western foreign policy analysis suggests that Russia and Iran have become deeply intertwined in their shared opposition to the U.S.
However, Russia refrained from backing Iran in its conflict with Israel, suggesting that the ties between Moscow and Tehran are purely strategic, rather than a special relationship.
In some regards, Russia actually benefits from Israel’s strikes on Iran.
Wednesday, June 25: Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold?
President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran following twelve days of war.
However, continued strikes between the two states continued, much to Trump’s irritation.
Both Israel and Iran have reasons for continued conflict, with Israel seeing Iran as being at its weakest point yet and Iran not wanting further key government figures targeted.
Thursday, June 26: Russia is quietly turning Libya into its new Syria
Syria hosted two critical Russian bases that enabled Moscow’s power projection in the Mediterranean Sea.
With the collapse of Russian ally Bashar al-Assad, the Kremlin has begin moving its military assets to Libya, which also lies along the Mediterranean.
However, instability in Libya presents a challenge to Russia’s North Africa pivot.
Friday, June 27: Why the Gulf is key to winning the AI arms race
Despite their economies traditionally being driven by oil, the Gulf states have diversified into other sectors, most notably technology.
Trump’s recent visit to the Gulf saw various agreements signed related to artificial intelligence.
The U.S. should deepen its AI collaboration with the Gulf so as to maintain an edge over rival states.
Flashpoints
U.S. just struck Iran. Iraq may just slip back into civil war because of it.
The United States launched unprecedented attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
The strikes have received condemnation from Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, which threatened to strike U.S. bases.
Such a move would heighten intra-Shia tensions in Iraq, culminating in a new civil war.
Behind Iran’s Missile Strike: The U.S. Base at the Center of It All
In response to the American strikes, Iran launched several missiles targeting Doha, Qatar.
The primary target was the Al Udeid Air Base, the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East that oversees all American military operations in the region.
Iran’s aim was likely to decapitate American military resources and planning to prevent further strikes on its territory.
What do you think lies ahead for the Middle East & North Africa as the week comes to a close? Let me know down below!